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第一个一万亿美刀总是最难的  

2017-01-14 08:48:09|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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作者:乐趣

在股市混,只要有仓位,要想做“客官”,那是很难的,甚至是不可能的。比如我自己,总是喜欢看愿意读,能证明自己的持仓是多么地正确的资讯。这不,今天看到如下这篇中文译稿,觉得受用,赶紧找到英文原文,然后自己编排成英汉对照,并收藏之。
 
The First Trillion Dollars is Always the Hardest
Horace Dediu
 
In its first 10 years, the iPhone will have sold at least 1.2 billion units,[1] making it the most successful product of all time. The iPhone also enabled the iOS empire which includes the iPod touch, the iPad, the Apple Watch and Apple TV whose combined total unit sales will reach 1.75 billion units over 10 years. This total is likely to top 2 billion units by the end of 2018.
 
到第一个 10 年,也就是今年 6 月,iPhone 将卖出至少 12 亿部,成为史上最成功的电子产品。
iPhone 也为苹果打造了一个 iOS 系统帝国,包括 iPod touch、iPad、Apple Watch 和 Apple TV。
10 年间所有的 iOS 产品加起来将达到 17.5 亿部。到 2018 年底,这个数字预计会超过 20 亿部。
 
The revenues from iOS product sales will reach $980 billion by middle of this year. In addition to hardware Apple also books iOS services revenues (including content) which have totaled more than $100 billion to date.
This means that iOS will have generated over $1 trillion in revenues for Apple sometime this year.
In addition, developers building apps for iOS have been paid $60 billion. The rate of payments has now reached $20 billion/yr.
 
到今年年中,所有搭载 iOS 产品为苹果带来的营收将达到 9800 亿美元。除了硬件产品,苹果记录了 iOS 服务收入总额(包括应用和内容服务)已经超过了 1000 亿美元。
加起来,今年年内 iOS 将为苹果公司带来超过一万亿美元的收入。
除此之外,苹果已经向 iOS 应用开发者支付了 600 亿美元。现在,苹果一年要支付给开发者超过 200 亿美元分成。
 
Not included in this payment total are “mobile-first” or “mobile mainly” businesses such as FaceBook, Twitter, Linkedin, Tencent, YouTube, Yahoo, NetEase, Pandora Radio, Google Search, Baidu, Google Maps, Gmail, Instagram, Amazon, eBay, JD.com, Alibaba, Priceline, Expedia, Salesforce and Other Enterprise Software, Ride Sharing Apps, AirBnB and many other services which monetize independently of the App Store.
 
这里的收入没有包括许多专心于手机上赚钱的公司,比如: FaceBook、Twitter、Linkedin、腾讯、YouTube、雅虎、网易、 Pandora Radio、 Google 搜索、 百度、 Google 地图、 Gmail、 Instagram、 亚马逊、eBay、京东、阿里巴巴、Priceline、Expedia、Salesforce 、网约车应用、Airbnb……它们收入来源独立于 App Store 之外。
 
I estimate that the cumulative revenues enabled by iOS across these businesses have exceeded $500 billion, with a rate of revenue soon to reach $300 billion/yr.
综合这所有收入来看的话,iOS 相关的收入已经累计超过 5000 亿美元。很快,这个规模能达到每年 3000 亿美元。
 
The revenue numbers can only hint at the change in behavior among users. An iPhone is unlocked 80 times a day. Assuming 600 million devices in use there are 48 billion sessions on iPhones every day. 17.5 trillion sessions every year. It is these instances of interaction and engagement which are desired by all businesses built on top of the ecosystem.
这些数字表明了用户行为的变化。一部 iPhone 手机每天平均解锁 80 次。假设有 6 亿部设备正被人使用,那么用户每天使用 iPhone 手机的“次数”(指使用了一段时间、而不是只看一眼手机的行为)将达到 480 亿次,每年达到 17.5 万亿次。所有以苹果“生态系统”为基础的业务,正是基于这些用户的互动和参与。
 
These instances of engagement must be multiplied by the quality of the customers which Apple captures. iOS users spend more and are more loyal than those on alternative platform thus qualifying the platform as “premium” and thus adding to its value in the eyes of developers, content producers and service providers.
 
苹果能吸引更高质量的用户,这让用户参与的价值翻倍。相比于其它操作系统,iOS 用户会花更多钱,忠诚度也更高。在开发者、内容和服务提供商眼中,iOS 有更高的价值和“优先级”。
 
As the install base of iOS increases and as users hire the devices to do more and spend more time with them the virtuous cycle of value creation will continue and accelerate.
 
iOS 设备的激活数量还在增加,用户消耗在 iOS 上的时间也更多,一个关于价值创造的良性循环还在继续加速运转。
There is a temptation to think that such a business is fragile and will be disrupted. Challengers appear daily and the number of iPhone “killers” is not measurable. One can cite the billion users of Nokia phones which defected. One can cite the loyalty of BlackBerry users that evaporated. One can even cite the juggernaut of Windows and how it became impotent. One can cite the vast number of Android devices offered at low prices.
 
有人可能会认为这样的业务模式是脆弱的,将来也会被颠覆。每天都会出现新的竞争对手,还有数之不尽的 iPhone“杀手”。诺基亚手机的10 亿用户已经抛弃了它;黑莓用户当初的忠诚已经消失殆尽;曾经独当一面的 Windows 操作系统已经失去了当初的势头;还有一大批人在使用低价 Android 设备。
 
But there are reasons to believe that the iOS empire is far stronger and resilient.
 
不过有理由相信 iOS 帝国比它们生命力更强一点。
 
Unlike Nokia’s phones, Apple’s product is an ecosystem with network effects and dependencies on software and services. It’s also a monolithic product with a singular interface and form factor.
 
与诺基亚手机不同,苹果公司的产品形成了一个依赖于软件和服务、拥有网络效应的“生态系统”。同时,它还是一个有着统一界面和外形的一体化产品。
 
Unlike BlackBerry, the iPhone does many jobs–too many to count. Indeed the iPhone evolves and changes its core value over time.
 
与专注邮件的黑莓手机不同,iPhone 能做太多东西了。而 iPhone 的核心价值也在产品演进中改变了。
 
Although different in many ways from Windows there are strong similarities in terms of loyalty and persistence of users. iOS even developed a dominant position in enterprises. Microsoft’s attempt to become a hardware company is a testament to the confluence of the two business models.
 
虽然 iOS 和 Windows 在许多方面都很不一样,但就用户忠诚度和持续性而言,两者十分相似。iOS 甚至占了大部分的企业市场。而微软成为硬件公司的尝试,就是将两种商业模式汇合在一起的例证。
 
And whereas Android was originally seen as the “good enough” iPhone, potentially disrupting it, it turns out to be the ersatz iPhone. Chances are higher that users will switch from Android to iPhone and not the other way. Again, the reasons have more to do with the ecosystem and quality of users (which are hard to measure) than with the hardware (which is easy to measure.)
 
Android 手机原本被视为是“足够好”的 iPhone,拥有颠覆它的潜力。但最后,Android 只是成为了 iPhone 替代。用户更有可能从 Android 转到 iPhone 上,而不是反过来。正如上面所说,更大的原因在于 iPhone 的生态系统以及用户质量(这一点很难衡量),而不在于硬件(这一点较易衡量)。
 
As we look toward the second decade of the iPhone, the expectation isn’t one of another “big bang” but a process of continuous improvement. The market is nearing saturation so the goals must be to capture more switchers from Android. Apple has achieved this with the Mac: survival, persistence and eventual redemption.
 
当我们望向 iPhone 的第二个十年,我们期待不是另一个“大爆炸”式的发展,而是一个持续改进的过程。这个市场已经接近饱和,所以苹果公司的未来目标,一定得是拉更多 Android 用户过来。苹果曾经用 Mac 做到了这件事:生存、坚持,最终拯救了自己。
 
More exciting is the apparent expansion of a network of ancillary “smart” accessories. The Apple Watch, the AirPods, Pencil and possible new wearables point toward a future where the iPhone is a hub to a mesh of personal devices. The seamless integration of such devices is what has always set Apple apart.
 
能让人有点兴奋的是“智能”配件网络的扩张。Apple Watch、AirPods、Pencil 和未来的新的可穿戴设备表明,未来 iPhone 手机将成为个人设备网络的中心。无缝整合这些设备,一直是苹果公司的过人之处。



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